A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
